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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • One huge issue is that LLMs do weird and stupid things differently than how humans do them.

    If you’ve developed an eye for reading human-made changes, you’re not necessarily going to recognize new and surprising failure modes as easily. It’s literally harder than regular code review.

    Humans with modern tooling, for example, rarely hallucinate field/class/method/object names because non-spicy autocomplete keeps them on the rails. LLMs seem much more willing to decide the menu bar is .menuBar and not .topMenu, probably because their training corpus is full of the former.









  • Trying to sell consumers on “scaling solves everything” is going to be a hard sell.

    If we look at general purpose computation, which had decades of actual scaling-solves-everything growth, you had two influences that made the message resonate with customers:

    • Clear existing applications where more power made the experience straightforward better. Your spreadsheet took an hour to recalculate at 8MHz and 20 minutes at 25MHz. A lot of the “bigger model” stuff is plateauing with marginal or spotty gains. If I feed another 5 Internets of data to ChatGPT, will that summarized email be that much better?

    • New applications that could be demoed on specialised low capacity hardware and scaled down to consumers as more power became available. Think of early CGI on hardware costing tens of millions, and now you can run Blender on a $149 laptop. Since most commercial AI plays are hosted services, there’s not much opportunity to tease that way anymore.






  • I’ve always wondered what would have happened if the Confederacy was left to its own devices. Thry had a clear vision, but it was intensely nearsighted.

    Free chattel labour was appealing for a farming economy in 1860, but it’s less of a selling point elsewhere. You’re right on the cusp of major industrial and trchnological advancement, while clutching to a labour pool that you don’t want learning to read and probably wouldn’t trust with machinery. You’re not moving up the value chain that way.

    So you’ve got a cash-crop dependent, export centric economy, who is about to be caught with its pants down when other countries start to fire up steam and petrol-powered agricultural equipment. You’re also pointing a target on your back as consumers are becoming more sophisticated and concepts like boycotts and sanctions are developing.

    Give it 50 years, and they’d halve their per-capita GDP and either be a weird novelty for slavery tourism, or the “secret sauce” behind sketchy impossibly-cheap clothing and foodstuffs where the vendor doesn’t want to proudly boast “made in CSA” on the label.